Analytical Brief — 31.08.2026 05:04

As of 31.08.2026 02:00 UTC, no confirmed T1 breaches, but a high-intensity front. Russia is conducting a nighttime wave of UAVs against Kharkiv/Poltava regions and missile activity toward Odesa/Chornomorsk (T3). Ukrainian sources signal unrest in Kerch — likely long-range UAV/missile strikes on Crimea. In Kyiv/Mykolaiv regions, logistics facilities (Auchan/Aurora, Sandora) are burning, indicating strikes on rear infrastructure. In Germany, the 'Putin's girlfriend' party (BSW/Wagenknecht) with the far right is pushing to halt aid to Ukraine — a European split. Macro: gold −3.24%, dollar +0.57%, S&P/Nasdaq under pressure; 10Y yield 4.67%, 10-2 spread +0.39 — no recession signal, but the Fed returns to rhetoric of possible hikes. Key risk — escalation in the Black Sea/Crimea and transition of strikes on logistics to T1-confirmed.