Assessments & forecasts

The world at a tipping point: the long-standing US-Iran conflict has entered a hot phase on the periphery, WTI crude surged toward $79, stock markets fall, capital flees to gold and Treasuries. Europe suffocates from heat turning into an energy crisis. Ukraine — drone warfare and signals of imminent dismissal of AFU Commander-in-Chief Syrsky. The elite narrative matrix via Foreign Affairs outlines the contours of a new world: China-Europe clash, allies drifting from America, Iran's reconfiguration of the Middle East. The change of UK Prime Minister to Burnham — an attempt to shift the socio-political model. The day is filled not with isolated noises but interconnected nodes: energy, war, elites. Forewarned is forearmed.

Global markets shift to risk-off: stocks fall, gold and oil rise. Key driver — the fifth month of the protracted US-Iran war. Houthis declare a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, WTI crude jumps 3.91%, US gasoline back above $4/gallon. Leading think tank Foreign Affairs publishes a cascade of articles, registering a tectonic shift: the world is abandoning America, China is sabotaging the system, the UN is dying, the Arctic becomes a dangerous arena. Europe writhes from an energy crisis amid heatwave. In Ukraine — rumors of Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi's dismissal amid UAV strikes on Kharkiv and activity in Kerch. Old instruments of coercion are broken, energy has become the main weapon. The world is sliding into chaotic multipolarity — requiring cold calculation and readiness for sharp turns.

Ukraine - Kharkiv: series of air raid alerts due to UAVs; drones recorded over Northern Saltivka. - Odesa and region: activity of jet UAVs and Orlan-10 towards the Black Sea; strike on infrastructure — 3 dead, 3 wounded, search and rescue operations. - Kyiv: driver arrested for the death of a 17-year-old cyclist. - National level: over 18 million m² of state roads repaired.

Ukraine - Russian forces launched a missile strike (Kh-59/Kh-69) on the civilian dry cargo ship GOLDEN LEO flying the flag of Guinea-Bissau; the vessel was carrying grain, 5 crew members died, fate of another 5 unknown. - Series of air raid alerts and UAV activity recorded in Kharkiv and Odesa; alerts were declared and canceled in both regions during the night. - Russian shelling of a medical facility in Kherson: 7 injured with shrapnel wounds and concussions. - Ukrainian UAV forces destroyed two Russian air defense systems in temporarily occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia region. Russia - Record high: in 2025, Russian courts issued 1,776 verdicts on terrorism charges (Articles 205–205.5 of the Criminal Code) — the highest ever recorded. - On Mount Elbrus (altitude 4,200 m), a father and his 11-year-old son fell; the child died, a pre-investigation check has been launched. - Unstable situation in Kerch (according to monitoring channels). Europe - Andy Burnham officially appoint…

UKRAINE - Kharkiv: protests against Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Syrskyi continue for the fourth day; simultaneously, KAB strikes are recorded on Kozacha Lopan and Prudyanka, air raid alerts. - Odesa Oblast: UAV activity (2 drones heading towards Vylkove), a series of air raid alerts in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi, Bolhrad, and Izmail districts. - Zaporizhzhia and the Black Sea water area: explosions amid alerts; the Ukrainian Navy neutralized a drifting naval mine near Odesa. - Kyiv: fourth day of protests against the dismissal of the Minister of Defense (according to Meduza). RUSSIA - Moscow Oblast and several regions: nighttime UAV attack, explosions recorded; missile danger was declared. - Kerch: increased activity/instability (according to military blogs). - General background: Russian public pages record strikes in the Moscow suburbs. EUROPE - There is virtually no data on European countries (except indirect mentions) in the snapshot. The only relevant signal…

Ukraine - Massive drone and guided bomb strikes on Kharkiv and Kyiv region: hits, fires and casualties recorded (two injured in Bucha district). Air raid alerts repeatedly sounded and canceled in Kharkiv and Odesa region. - Protests in Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa against the dismissal of Defense Minister Fedorov continue for the third consecutive day; simultaneously, demands for the replacement of Commander-in-Chief Syrsky are voiced. - Incident with a jet drone in the waters of Odesa region; among the victims are a deceased 16-year-old and a two-year-old child. - In Stavropol Krai, Russia, an oil depot is burning after a drone attack (confirmed by Russian sources). Russia - In Stavropol Krai, an oil depot caught fire after a drone strike; fires continue. - The garrison military court in Rostov-on-Don sentenced former Ka-52 pilot and Z-blogger Alexei Zemtsov to three years in prison on charges of death threats, extortion and property damage. - Increased activity noted in Kerch (accordi…

UKRAINE - Odesa region: strike on port infrastructure, foreign cargo ship hit (Antigua and Barbuda). One dead, three wounded. Repeated strike on rescue equipment during response. - Kharkiv region: series of air alerts, missiles in the area. Fallen debris recorded. Concurrently, a domestic fire in Slobidskyi district (evacuation of three people and one animal). - Front: 69 combat engagements over the past day…

Ukraine - Intensification of combined UAV and ballistic strikes on Kharkiv region (directions Zolochiv, Mala Rohan, Kharkiv itself). Launches from Bryansk region and loitering drones recorded; an explosion noted outside the city. - Large-scale drone attack on occupied Crimea (Hvardiiske, Sevastopol, Feodosia, Kerch). Targets likely aviation facilities; heightened tension reported in Kerch.

Ukraine - Kharkiv region: strikes recorded with 'lightning' and 'Banderol' drones on the industrial zone of Osnovyansky district and Izyum (optical-mechanical plant, railway market). No casualties. - Odesa: night missile attack resulted in 2 dead and 10 injured (including children). Red Cross volunteer Olena Arkhipova died. - Odesa region: a 29-year-old man detained in a case of sexual violence against two minor boys; sentence passed on a drug dealer who used his 7-year-old daughter to transport cocaine. - Frontline/HUR: Russia ordered to intensify drone strikes on civilian objects and transport in the frontline zone and near the border. Russia - Kerch: increased activity noted (nature unspecified). - Operational background: preparation and launch of drones towards Ukrainian regions (Vinnytsia, etc.) continues. - HUR statements: order confirmed to intensify strikes on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. Europe - Poland: in the first half of 2026, hate crimes against U…

UKRAINE - Kharkiv: series of UAVs in the Derhachi area + air raid alert; simultaneously, a protest against the dismissal of Defense Minister Fedorov is taking place (near Shevchenko Garden). - Odesa: missile launches/flights toward the city recorded, series of explosions. - Front/rear: transfer of equipment from Kryvyi Rih worth 25 million hryvnias to 16 military units; drones detected in the Vinnytsia direction. - Politics: dismissal …

Ukraine - In Kharkiv region, a UAV strike hit a civilian object: a minibus damaged, one dead (enterprise security guard), four wounded. - In Poltava region, the body of former deputy head of the Kharkiv region National Police, Serhiy Chyzh, was found — preliminary suicide with a ceremonial weapon. - The Verkhovna Rada approved the new Cabinet composition (except Defense and Foreign Affairs)…

Ukraine - Operational activity of the Russian Aerospace Forces: Su-34 launches recorded in Odesa region, air raid alert declared across the entire region. - Drone strike: National Guard fighters ("Omega") destroyed a Russian Tor air defense system worth $25 million in the temporarily occupied territory of Luhansk region. - Personnel crisis in Kharkiv: accelerated mobilization has caused an acute staff shortage; companies offer from 47 th...

Ukraine - Kharkiv: Repeated strikes on residential areas in Kyivskyi district (KAB + FPV). Fires recorded in apartment buildings; aviation operating over 'Kozacha Lopan'. 9 casualties in the past 24 hours. - Odesa: Fifth consecutive day of missile and drone strikes on infrastructure. Warehouses, gas pipeline, gas station, and an enterprise damaged; three evacuated, including children. - Front: Russian forces' main efforts concentrated on Kostiantynivka and Pokrovsk directions — 73 attacks since start of day. Sloviansk direction also intensified. - Trend: Increase in strikes on frontline and port cities alongside pressure on the eastern front. Russia - Fuel crisis: Attacks on refineries lead to gasoline shortage; Kremlin discusses building a network of mini-refineries as alternative to large facilities. - Logistics: Interior Ministry cancels fines for parking in queues at gas stations — indirect acknowledgment of the scale of shortage. - Finance: …

Intelligence Digest Snapshot: 15.07.2026, 02:00 UTC Ukraine - Kharkiv region: a series of UAV and Shahed launches recorded towards Berestyn, Bohodukhiv, Derhachi, Krasnohrad, Izium, Shevchenkove. All-clear announced after series of reports. - Odesa: hits on infrastructure confirmed, smoke observed. Shaheds recorded over the Black Sea and dropping flight mission maps. - Air defense/alert: due to reduced flight time of ballistic missiles, risk of delayed warning signals remains. - Domestic policy: deadline for foreigners and stateless persons to exchange residence permits extended to August 4. Russia - Moscow and region: over the past day, 340 Ukrainian UAVs claimed heading to the region (Sobyanin). - Sanctions pressure: updated bill being prepared in US Congress, providing for tariffs up to 100% on largest importers of Russian oil and gas (primarily China and India). - Crimea: increased activity noted in the Kerch area. Europe - Fo…

UKRAINE - The Verkhovna Rada extended martial law and mobilization for 90 days (until October 31, 2026). The vote resulted in 255 'for'. - Russian troops launched a missile strike on the Odesa district: a 69-year-old woman died, a 44-year-old man was wounded. Repeated explosions and smoke were recorded. - In Kherson, a minibus and a car were attacked by drones in the city center …

Intelligence Digest Current Snapshot: 14.07.2026 Ukraine - An explosion occurred at an ammunition depot in Donetsk, followed by detonation and a large fire; the cause of the incident has not been determined. - The Netherlands initiated a ramp-up in the production of air defense ammunition for Ukraine, with a focus on countering Russian ballistic missiles. - France confirmed the transfer to Ukraine of a license to produce SCALP cruise missiles. - The ombudsmen of Ukraine and Hungary agreed on the format of a permanent working group and joint monitoring visits. Russia - In the Kursk region, from July 15, gasoline sales will be restricted by license plate numbers (similar restrictions are already in place in seven regions of the Russian Federation). - Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy facilities have reached a new level of intensity, creating risks for the fuel and energy complex. - The French license for SCALP production enhances Ukraine's long-term potential…

UKRAINE - Kharkiv and Odesa regions: UAV launches recorded (2 jet-type towards Yuzhne, 3 Shaheds towards Vylkove; drone towards Lozova). Air alerts were issued and later canceled. Traffic restricted on three streets in Kharkiv due to repairs. - Front: Most intense pressure on Pokrovsk and Sloviansk axes — 70 attacks since the start of the day. Russian forces maintain high activity in these sectors. - Kherson: Drone strike on a gas station in the Dnipro district, three staff injured. - Rear: Blueberry prices drop by 17% amid mass harvest; separate incident of two brothers killed in Poltava region (16 and 5 gunshot wounds). RUSSIA - Kerch and Crimean energy hub: Increased activity noted (according to Ukrainian sources, strikes on 9 substations and the 'Kuban — Crimea' power transfer point). - Sea of Azov: Ukrainian drones struck 15 Russian vessels overnight (7 tankers, 5 dry cargo ships, 2 tugs, 1 ferry). Total count over 8 days: 105 targets. - Domes…

Ukraine - Massive drone/Shahed attack on Kharkiv region: targets recorded towards Staryi Saltiv, Liubotyn, Merefa, Vodolaha, Taranivka, and Zmiiv. - Operational activity in Odesa region: four low-flying missiles, up to 15 drones on Chornomorsk/Mayaky/Lymanka; explosions recorded in Chornomorsk. - Drones attacked an oil depot in Stavropol Krai and targets in Moscow; in Zaporizhzhia, six wounded (including a teenager) from Russian shelling. - In the temporarily occupied part of Kherson region, evacuation of families of collaborators and Russian security forces is underway. Russia - Sobyanin claimed 300 Ukrainian drones were launched towards Moscow and the region in the past day. - In Buryatia, authorities demand enterprises either send employees to war or pay 100,000 rubles per person. - The head of Orenburg reported he could not hire janitors from North Korea at the offered salary; streets are cleaned by citizens of Senegal. - Increased activity noted in Kerch …

Ukraine - Russian forces launched the fourth Shahed strike in 24 hours on an industrial facility in Kryvyi Rih; a fire was recorded. - On the front, the enemy conducted 69 attacks since the start of the day, with main efforts concentrated on the Sloviansk and Pokrovsk directions. - In Odesa region, a mass drone attack was recorded overnight; infrastructure and residential areas were damaged, no casualties. - President Zelensky held a series of meetings with Shmyhal, Klymenko, Fedorov, and Terekhov on air defense, energy protection, and brigade manning. Russia - Ukrainian Defense Ministry adviser Beskrestnov stated that the war has entered a phase of 'deep strikes and mid-range strikes'; in his assessment, Russia intends to attack all available targets. - In Kerch, increased alarm activity has been noted (according to monitoring channels). - Drone movement towards Vinnytsia region was recorded; night monitoring is ongoing. Europe - Germany allocates 90 million euros fo…

Ukraine - Russian drones struck the Shevchenkivskyi, Kyivskyi and Saltivskyi districts of Kharkiv: fires and impacts recorded, at least three people injured. - A strike was carried out on a food industry enterprise in Dnipro. - UAV and missile activity recorded in Odesa and Chornomorsk: series of explosions, up to six targets in the area. Russia - In Moscow and the Moscow region, a heavy downpour with hail due to the merger of cyclones 'Bernadette' and 'Caspian'. - In Vladivostok, a veteran of the Special Military Operation threatened a woman with a gun on the street; after media publication, he was forced to apologize on camera. - Chairman of the Investigative Committee Bastrykin requested a report on the activities of 'fashion guru' Arthur Sita in a case of violence against followers. Europe - In Ankara, 27 employees, including the district mayor, were detained in a corruption case in the Çankaya municipality. - Lithuanian curators continue to evacuate works of art …

Ukraine - Kharkiv Oblast: Strikes recorded on a gas station in Shevchenkivskyi district and an FPV drone on Oleksiivka. Russian forces continue to deliberately target fuel infrastructure using low-observability drones. - Odesa Oblast: A missile strike on civilian infrastructure killed two people and wounded one. A clinic, residential buildings, and infrastructure facilities were damaged; medical equipment was preserved. - Front and Rear: Joint Forces Command "North" confirmed the search for the commander of the 155th Separate Mechanized Brigade. Restoration of the Kharkiv Art Museum continues after the UAV strike on June 14. - Economy: In the first half of 2026, privatization revenues to the budget exceeded UAH 1.26 billion. Russia - Domestic Politics: Starting from the 2026/27 academic year, four mandatory subjects are introduced in all Russian universities, including "Fundamentals of Russian Statehood." - Naval Activity: Ukrainian forces struck 76 …

Ukraine - Russian forces launched a ballistic strike on Kyiv (likely from Bryansk region). Explosions were recorded before the alarm; there are casualties and damage in several districts. - UAV activity in the suburbs of Kharkiv (Bezlyudivka, Borki) and near Odesa/Chornomorsk. Series of alarms and operational warnings. - Zelenskyy created a 'long-range influence command' within the Armed Forces of Ukraine...

Разведывательный дайджест 10.07.2026, 14:00 UTC Украина - Коррупция в системе бронирования: в Харькове задержаны двое сотрудников МВД и их сообщник, организовавшие схему фиктивного трудоустройства за 4500 USD. Операция указывает на сохранение каналов обхода мобилизации через предприятия критической инфраструктуры. - Удары по гражданской инфраструктуре: российская авиация нан…

Ukraine - Kharkiv region: series of drone strikes on Bohodukhiv district (Valky, Merchyk). 1 woman killed, three more wounded or injured; 5 private houses and farm buildings damaged. - Odesa region: air raid alert, drone movement detected from the sea towards Yuzhne; in the Tuzly Estuaries National Park, 7 more dead Azov dolphins found (total since late May: 74)…

UKRAINE - Massive drone attacks: air raid alerts were declared in Kharkiv and Odesa regions, including drone routes through Dnipropetrovsk and towards Mayaky. - Infrastructure destruction: over the past month, Russian strikes have put 200 out of 5,000 gas stations out of service. - Saakashvili's statement: Ukraine must urgently prepare cities for a new phase of war — build shelters and decentralize energy. - Attack on rescuers …

Ukraine - In the Shevchenkivskyi district of Kharkiv, repeated UAV strikes on a gas station were recorded: a fire broke out, and one civilian injury was confirmed. - In Odesa, a series of explosions and air defense activity; a possible second target and reloading of divisions were reported. - The occupation 'Supreme Court of the DPR' sentenced four Marine commanders who defended Mariupol to life imprisonment in absentia. - The Consul General of Ukra...

Украина - Массированный комбинированный удар РФ по Харькову (ракеты + дроны, включая S8000 «Бандероль»): разрушены верхние этажи жилой пятиэтажки, пожары в частном секторе и на АЗС, 34 пострадавших. Фиксируется рост числа жертв. - Серия БПЛА зафиксирована на подходе к Одессе и Беляевскому району; объявлена воздушная тревога. Ночной удар по Измаильскому району повредил инфраструктуру (пострада…

УКРАИНА - Масштабные воздушные тревоги в Харькове и Одесской области с угрозой БПЛА и баллистики; зафиксированы дроны на подходе к Татарбунарам и Катлабугу. - Украина направила РФ «реалистичное» предложение о завершении войны с требованием признать невозможность достижения целей на поле боя. - БЭБ разоблачило схему производства контрафактных ювелирных изделий в Одессе под брендами премиу…

Ukraine - Kharkiv: Russian KABs struck the Shevchenkivskyi district, confirmed 20 wounded (including 4 children) and 1 dead. Strikes also recorded towards Kozacha Lopan/Lyptsi. - South: air raid alerts declared in Bolhrad, Izmail, and Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi districts of Odesa region. - Front/rear: Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked eight tankers of Russia's 'shadow fleet' in the Sea of Azov (confirmed by the UAV Forces command).

UKRAINE - A series of UAVs recorded in Kharkiv and the region (Veseloye, Stary Saltov); all-clear declared after a series of alerts. - Missile strike on civilian infrastructure in Odesa district: three private houses damaged, a 3-year-old child injured (moderate condition). - Poltava region: on June 30, a Mi-8 crashed while repelling a drone attack, killing the entire crew (4 pilots). - Operational data …

UKRAINE - Massive Russian attack on Kyiv: 15 dead (including children), 56 injured. 68 missiles and 351 UAVs used. - Strike on Kharkiv (Kholodnohirskyi district): hit recorded, fire broke out, no casualties reported. - Attack on Odesa: adjacent areas and a garage cooperative in a residential district damaged, no casualties. - Forest fire in the Carpathian region: second day of firefighting, area…

РАЗВЕДЫВАТЕЛЬНЫЙ ДАЙДЖЕСТ Срез: 05.07.2026, 21:08 UTC УКРАИНА - В Харькове и Одессе зафиксирована активность БПЛА; в Одесском районе объявлена воздушная тревога, 2 дрона направлялись в сторону Чорноморска/Одессы. - По данным источников, с утра фиксируется разведка маршрутов ракетных ударов и попытки истощения ПВО северных регионов; ожидается возможный массированный удар по западным …

Public summary paragraph of the assessment.

АНАЛИТИЧЕСКИЙ ДОКЛАД Дата среза: 06.07.2026 13:44 UTC Объект: Внутренняя сборка элиты РФ вокруг «нового социализма» Белоусова и её влияние на украинскую субъектность. 1. СИТУАЦИЯ На фоне продолжающихся ударов по Харькову (Холодногорский район) и Одессе (Хаджибейский район, гаражный кооператив) фиксируется стратегический сдвиг внутри российского управленческого контура. Кружок Тихоновой и силовой…

1. SITUATION As of 06.07.2026, combined strikes on frontline and rear areas of Ukraine (Kharkiv, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia) continue. On the front — 69 attacks per day, priority on the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka direction. Meanwhile, Urals crude dropped to $42/barrel, returning to pre-crisis Middle East levels. Britain imposed sanctions over Novichok, Poland completes rotation of US forces. Inside Russia, the information background about a 'new war for decades' intensifies (Bezrukov's report in 'Russia in Global Affairs').

1. SITUATION Ukraine remains a bargaining space between Washington, London, and Moscow. Strikes on Bryansk, Kerch, and oil terminals are a tool for Kyiv to pressure Russia through external intelligence channels. The people of Ukraine serve as a resource base and expendable material, not as a subject of decisions. Real power is concentrated in external players who control supplies, intelligence, and financial flows. 2.…