Analytical Brief — 02.09.2026 17:02

The world is entering a phase of simultaneous escalation on several theaters. Ukraine: systemic strikes on energy (Kharkiv, Odesa), statements about the hardest winter, internal conflict between SBU and GUR in Kyiv — a signal of a fracturing vertical. Middle East: the US strikes Iranian targets, Israel expands positions in Lebanon. Germany accuses Russia of a drone attack on Leipzig airport — hybrid war crosses borders. Macro: oil rises on geopolitics, gold falls due to the strong dollar and real yields, stock markets weaken, but VIX remains low — complacency before possible stress. The financial circuit is tense: G-20 squabbles, bonds under pressure. Real power is shifting to those who control energy and military capabilities; diplomacy is degrading.