Analytical Brief — 28.08.2026 17:04

28.08.2026, 14:00 UTC. The world is entering a phase of simultaneous coercive economics and military uncertainty. The U.S. is tightly blocking Iranian oil exports; WTI is rising (+2.09%), but markets are still risk-on (S&P +0.66%, Nasdaq +1.37%), and VIX is low (14.5) — a sign of belief in conflict manageability. Ukraine strikes Crimea (Kerch), Kharkiv and Odesa are under aerial attacks. Elite publications signal a "great rebalancing" and a possible U.S. exit from Europe. Norway bids farewell to King Harald V — a quiet change of eras. Key risks — a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and delays in military aid to Ukraine.