Analytical Brief — 30.09.2026 14:12

Intensification of the air war: Massive Shahed/missile strikes on energy infrastructure in Western Ukraine, Kharkiv, and Odesa Oblast; a UAV crash was recorded in Bender (Moldova), indicating the conflict is spilling over into a neighboring country. Concurrently, an incident involving a Flydubai flight: possible hijacking or crew altercation, resulting in an emergency landing in Saudi Arabia. Market conditions: 10-year U.S. Treasury yields at 5.24%, the dollar is rising, while gold and oil remain volatile. Geopolitical context: Signals regarding a potential energy truce via Abu Dhabi, U.S.-China tariff reductions (FP/T4), and President Xi’s visit assessed as a failure. Hungary is projected to block Ukraine’s Euro-integration. The critical focal point is not the front line, but the shift of strikes toward energy infrastructure and Moldova.