Analytical Brief — 06.09.2026 17:02

The day was marked by a sharp escalation in the Persian Gulf: the U.S. struck three Iranian oil tankers in response to attacks on American ships, with one vessel sunk. Simultaneously, in Ukraine, a drone strike on Chuhuiv killed three family members, including two children. WTI crude held above $91, with record U.S. gasoline prices. Israel struck southern Lebanon (four dead). Macro: 10Y-2Y spread positive (0.41 p.p.), VIX low (14.32) amid a stronger dollar and lower gold. Foreign Affairs' narrative agenda signals elite preparation for a redivision of spheres of influence: famine, Taiwan, space, rebalancing. Predominant counter-current: violence, use of oil as a weapon, civilian suffering.