Analytical Brief — 31.08.2026 17:02

The day was marked by an escalation of strikes on rear areas of Ukraine: hits recorded in Odesa Oblast (Nova Poshta logistics terminal), fires in Kyiv Oblast, UAV activity in Kharkiv. The front is shifting deeper — warehouses and infrastructure are being attacked. In the economy — a rise in 10-year US Treasury yields (4.67%), a stronger dollar (+0.57%), a 3.24% drop in gold with high WTI oil ($83.9) — the market is pricing in a severe geopolitical premium. Politically, Trump is losing offensive momentum ("Trump Has Peaked"), the Iranian factor remains a trigger (hypothetical scenario of a war in the Strait of Hormuz). The global balance of power is tense, but VIX is low — players are awaiting clear signals. The key cascade — further militarization of the Ukrainian conflict with the risk of logistics and energy disruptions.