Analytical Brief — 29.09.2026 02:13

The world is entering a phase of dual compression: military (Iran/US, Ukraine/Russia) and financial (interest rates above 5%, index corrections). While the US and China signal tariff de-escalation, the core instability is shifting to the Persian Gulf: dialogue with Iran is proceeding in parallel with strikes and threats. WTI crude is near $96, gold has fallen by 3.9%, and the dollar is strengthening as markets prioritize liquidity. On the Ukrainian front: strikes on Odesa Oblast, Kerch, and Vinnytsia; port infrastructure is under pressure. 10-year Treasury yields are above 5%, weighing on risk assets. Key triggers for the week: WTI closing above $100, confirmation of T1/T2 damage to the Odesa port, and the outcome of Iranian-American contacts.