Analytical Brief — 25.09.2026 02:12

As of 25.09.2026, the primary flashpoint remains escalation in the Middle East: Saudi Arabia intercepted Houthi missiles, which claimed strikes on Riyadh and Aramco facilities. WTI crude oil surged to approximately $99-100, unsettling markets, though the VIX remains low at 14.2. The US Senate rejected a resolution limiting Trump’s military powers against Iran, effectively granting him a free hand. Trump hosted Xi Jinping for a dinner with technology CEOs; no joint statement on rare earths has been issued. The war in Ukraine continues with overnight drone strikes on Kharkiv, Odesa, and Kerch; energy infrastructure attacks are mutual. Ethiopia reports eliminating hundreds of TPLF insurgents, raising the risk of conflict spillover into the Horn of Africa. 10-year US Treasury yields rose to 5.11%, with a positive 10Y-2Y spread (0.31 percentage points), but rising yields signal tightening financial conditions. The dominant dynamic is counter-pressure: escalation, crisis exploitation, and i…