Analytical Brief — 30.09.2026 02:12

The world is entering a phase of simultaneous escalation across three domains: military (strikes on Kharkiv, Odesa, Kerch, and Vinnytsia), political (coalition crisis in Slovakia, US sanctions on Iran), and financial (10-year US Treasury yields rising to 5.24%, declines in S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow, and a 3.94% plunge in gold). The 10Y-2Y spread has widened to 0.37 percentage points — the inversion has disappeared, but this signals tight monetary policy and inflationary pressure. WTI crude oil remains above $96, fueling energy inflation. Drone attacks are recorded in Kharkiv (residential building, city center, railway station) and in the south; unrest in Kerch confirms the expanding geography of strikes. In Slovakia, a minister's resignation threatens the collapse of the Fico government — a potential fracture in the EU/NATO eastern flank. US sanctions demonstrate continued pressure on Iran. Elite think tanks (Foreign Policy) are generating narratives about 'Trump's fascist geopolitics,' 's…