Analytical Snapshot — 24.07.2026 17:01

The world has entered a phase of multidimensional hybrid crisis, where an energy shock (oil breached $100, up +5.93% in a day), geopolitical destabilization (Houthi strikes in the Red Sea, freezing of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz), and erosion of American leadership (growing number of articles about 'the world giving up on the US') converge into a single knot. Markets are falling amid a surge in commodities — the S&P 500 loses 1.23%, the Nasdaq plunges nearly 2%, and government bond yields swing in opposite directions. In this environment, Iran is becoming a full-fledged regional predator, Russia is pressuring Ukraine through proxy allies, and Europe is balancing between an authoritarian drift (Meloni's Italy) and an attempt to maintain a sanctions course. The main beneficiary of the current turbulence is China, biding its time in a 'sleeping tiger' pose. The key risk for the next 24 hours is oil consolidating above $100 per barrel, which would turn the energy shock into an irreve…