Analytical Digest — 03.08.2026 17:03

The world is in a state of 'mosaic conflict': local escalations without total war. Markets (S&P 500 +0.72%) rise amid falling gold (-1.49%) and expensive oil — a paradox indicating a managed crisis. Iran presses without negotiations, expanding its campaign of coercion against the U.S. Europe is burning (fires, migrants) and hesitates in its own defense. Russia and Ukraine exchange strikes on infrastructure; the terrorist attack in Moscow is a trigger for a new phase. The key node of the day is the inversion of macro signals: fear leaves the markets at the peak of geopolitical tension; either elites know about de-escalation, or a strike is being prepared.