Analytical Overview — September 4, 2026, 05:03

A world in controlled, but fragile escalation: the US confirms an investigation into the strike on an Iranian wedding (likely an American munition), Vance denies war, Trump hints at a coup in Iran. Brent is above $95, US diesel at a record high. Financial markets do not believe in a big war: VIX 15.2, gold up, dollar down, the 10Y-2Y spread positive (0.43). On the Ukrainian front, T3 signals of strikes on Kharkiv, drones on Vinnytsia, unrest in Kerch. Climate: super El Niño. Long-term vector: energy and food pressure, contraction of the real economy, information warfare. Forewarned is forearmed.