Analytical Brief — September 5, 2026 17:02

September 5, 2026: Putin introduced a 3-day pause in strikes on Kyiv before the visit of US envoys; Ukraine refrained from attacks on Russia at night (T3), but strikes continue in Kharkiv, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia. Macro: 10Y-2Y spread +0.41 (no recession expected), VIX 14.32 (low fear), WTI oil ~$91.5, 10Y UST yield 4.77%. Markets mixed but pricing in de-escalation. Foreign Affairs publishes a package of articles on revising US global strategy (Taiwan, Iran, Europe) — a signal to elites. Fragile pause: diplomacy amid ongoing local fighting.