Analytical snapshot — 04.08.2026 17:02

World 04.08.2026: geopolitical turbulence amid market optimism. Key signal — a possible US-Iran deal to unblock the Strait of Hormuz (T2, but with reference to the US Treasury). This explains the drop in WTI oil to 84.25 (-7.49 from 07.24) and gains in the S&P 500 (+1.42%) and Nasdaq (+1.76%): markets are pricing in de-escalation in the Middle East. Iran publicly denies negotiations, creating bargaining behind the scenes. On the Ukrainian front — missile and drone strikes on Odesa and Kharkiv (T3); in Kerch, it is "unquiet." The US Treasury yield curve inversion has disappeared (10Y-2Y spread +0.45 p.p.) — the recession signal has been rescinded. Europe is mired in migration and climate crises (fires in France, record inflow in Spain). Russia shows labor hunger and tightening of screws (the Slepakov case). The weather vane shows a temporary shift of the center of gravity from Ukraine to Hormuz, but in both places threads lead to the energy balance.