Analytical Brief — 31.07.2026 17:03

31.07.2026: the central node – the United States, through Trump's Board of Peace, reached a preliminary deal on the disarmament of Hamas. This is a tactical de-escalation in Gaza, but without guarantees of long-term peace. At the same time, Poland recorded the fall of a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile on its territory – a direct challenge to NATO. Hungary's Paks Nuclear Power Plant was shut down due to a record low in the Danube: a non-military energy crisis is layered onto geopolitical turbulence. Ceuta is drowning in a migration wave: 60,000 in a day. Markets are pricing in hope for reconciliation (Nasdaq +3.3%), but gold is rising, the dollar is weakening – insurance against shocks remains. Ukraine: intensifying air attacks, internal purges in Kharkiv. The picture of the day is fragile euphoria on the edge of unresolved systemic tensions.