Analytical Brief — 26.09.2026 02:12

The day presents three parallel escalations: heavy fighting has resumed in Ethiopia with an internet blackout; in Ukraine, drones are striking logistics hubs in Kharkiv and Odesa, hitting the AZNAURI distribution center, a railway station, and residential areas; in the Middle East, Iran is pressing a 7-day plan with no promises of concessions, while the Trump-Xi summit concluded without a breakthrough. The EU has officially warned of an energy crisis and requested demand restrictions. Markets remain paradoxically calm: oil prices are falling, VIX is low, gold is rising, the UST curve is positive, and 10-year yields are above 5%. The disconnect between geopolitical tension and market stability is the key issue of the day.