Analytical Brief — September 5, 2026, 05:03

September 5, 2026: the world is on the threshold of a ceasefire attempt in Ukraine — Trump’s envoys visit Moscow and Kyiv, and an order establishes a silence regime from September 5 to 8. At the same time, the air war continues: UAVs strike Kharkiv, Kyiv, and Odesa; hits recorded against Boryspil and a food warehouse. Russia is suspected of a sabotage campaign in Europe. WTI crude jumped to $91.48 (+4.45), gold +1.85%, and the dollar is falling. The macro backdrop is stable: Fed rate 3.63%, 10Y-2Y spread +0.41, VIX 14.32 — markets are in risk-on mode, but rising commodities herald inflationary pressure. A deeper analysis: the diplomatic pause is being used by both sides for regrouping, not for peace. Inside Ukraine, NABU has launched a special operation against corruption in the Prosecutor General’s Office. The geopolitical balance is shifting in favor of energy players.