Analytical Snapshot — 23.08.2026 05:03

Nightly snapshot (02:00 UTC) records an aggravation of the US trade war with Canada: negotiations collapsed, Canada announced retaliatory measures from September 8. Simultaneously, Israel strikes southern Syria, while Russia continues attacks on Ukrainian cities (Kryvyi Rih, Kharkiv, Odesa) with mass use of UAVs. Markets show dissonance: stock indices rise, VIX is low (16.0), but gold is gaining (+1.95%), WTI oil holds above $86, Treasury yields are high (10Y: 4.69%). The 10Y-2Y spread came out of inversion (0.5 percentage points) — a classic harbinger of a slowdown. Foreign Affairs publishes a cascade of articles about the end of the American order — elite discourse prepares for restructuring. Geopolitical risk is rising, but the market has not yet priced in escalation. Main axes: US trade conflict with allies and expansion of the Ukrainian front.