Analytical Brief — 03.09.2026 05:15

The day is marked by a sharp jump in WTI crude to $91.48 (+5.46%) amid geopolitical tensions: drone attacks on Kharkiv and Odesa continue, signals indicate preparation of a massive strike on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, and Foreign Affairs is publishing a package of articles about the “Great Rebalancing” and U.S. fatigue with the role of global policeman. Equity markets are down (S&P -0.69%), gold is falling (-2.86%), the 10Y UST yield rises to 4.79% — classic risk-off with an inflationary undertone. The 10Y-2Y spread is positive (0.4 pp), but rising yields narrow the Fed’s room for maneuver. The migration crisis in Ceuta exposes Morocco’s use of migrants as leverage against Spain. Key risks: Ukraine’s energy collapse, U.S.-Iran escalation, further oil price growth. Forecasts of massive strikes and U.S. aid to Ukraine remain.